Exit polls published on Friday after voting ended in the five-state assembly elections indicate that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing uncertainty in Madhya Pradesh, where it has been in power since 2003.
Of the five surveys that have announced their numbers till now, three give the Congress the edge, one predicts a neck-and-neck race and one projects the BJP to win comfortably. But even this poll shows that the BJP's lead will reduce considerably from 2013.
Madhya Pradesh has a total of 230 Assembly seats and a party must get over 116 seats to gain a majority. In the 2013 polls, the BJP had swept 165 seats, while the Congress had won just 58 seats. BSP four and others three seats.
The Today's Chanaya poll predicts a clear majority for the Congress with 125 ± 12 seats, BJP 103 ± 12 seats and others Others 2 ± 5 seats.
The ABP News-Lokniti CSDSpoll said Congress will win 109 seats, BJP 84 seats and others 9.
C Voter-Republic TV also gave the Congress an edge over BJP: it said the Congress may win 102-126 seats, the ruling BJP 90-106 seats and others 6-22 seats.
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll projected Congress to get 104-122 seats and the BJP to get between 102 and 120 seats. BSP is likely to get between 1-3 seats and 'others' (smaller parties and independent candidates) will get between 3 and 8 seats.
— Republic (@republic) December 7, 2018
Only one poll published till now clearly says the BJP will cross the halfway mark comfortably, and even this says the BJP's tally will reduce by almost 40 seats.
The Times Now-CNX exit poll predicted a victory for incumbent chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. It said the BJP will get 126 seats, Congress 89, BSP 6 and others 9.