PhD Candidate in Development Economics (The Graduate Institute, Geneva)
The author is currently a Visiting Research Scholar at the University of Cambridge, and a specialist in conflict research. His research interests include drivers of ethno-religious conflict, and associated outcomes such as terrorism. Get to know more about his research here or follow his blog.
Is violence the fief of a particular political ideology, and by extension the operationalizing political outfit? To answer this I analyze the data from the India Sub National Problem Set, which records information on violent conflicts in India until 2004. To narrow down on the issue of political violence, I focus on incidents where at least one political outfit was involved. In what follows, I discuss the emergent patterns.
A host of factors are being implicated for the BJP's electoral humiliation in Bihar. These range from electoral arithmetic and the lack of a chief ministerial candidate to the overly aggressive campaigning pitch and pro-incumbency for Nitish Kumar. The relative effect of many of these factors will be ascertained in the coming days, as disaggregate data becomes available. An analysis of the preliminary data, however, indicates that a concoction of missed opportunities and self-goals from the BJP caused its poll debacle.
Riot variables have a positive and statistically significant effect on BJP's vote share. For example, a one percent increase in the number of riots in a district improves BJP's vote share by 4.4 percent. Similarly, a percent increase in the number of people killed in riots within a district increase BJP's vote share by 2.9 percent.