POLITICS

AAP To Win Punjab, BJP To Come Close In Goa And Manipur, Uttarkhand Hangs In The Balance: HuffPost-CVoter Exit Polls

The Congress is projected to win none of the four states.

09/03/2017 5:45 PM IST | Updated 09/03/2017 6:29 PM IST
Cathal McNaughton / Reuters

The Aam Aadmi Party is projected to sweep Punjab and the BJP to fall just short of a majority in Goa and Manipur according to CVoter-Huffpost exit polls for the 2017 Assembly elections. The BJP and the Congress are projected to be neck-and-neck in Uttarakhand with neither party getting a simple majority.


In Punjab, the AAP is projected to come to power with 63 seats in the 117-seat house, forming its second government in the country. The Congress is projected to come second with 45 seats, while the ruling Akali Dal-BJP combine is expected to be decimated, falling from 68 seats to just nine seats. The ruling combine is projected to do particularly badly in the Malwa region, getting virtually wiped out from 33 seats to 5.



However, little separates the voteshare of the AAP and the Congress, the difference being well within the margin of error of +/-3%. The Congress voteshare is better than it was in 2012, while the Akali-BJP voteshare is projected to nearly halve. The exit poll was conducted by CVoter on 13,717 voters in all 117 seats using the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing method.


Uttarkhand could be anyone's game, with virtually nothing to separate the two main rivals. Their seat tallies are projected to be virtually unchanged since 2012, indicating just how evenly matched the two are. The BJP is projected to sweep Garhwal and the Congress Kumaon, the regions the two parties' leaders are from.



The difference between the voteshare of the two parties lies well within the margin of error of +/-3%. The exit poll was conducted by CVoter on 7220 respondents in 69 seats.


In Goa, the ruling BJP is projected to fall just short of the 21 seats it needs for a simple majority and will need to form an alliance with a smaller party or Independents; the breaking of its alliance with the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party appears to have cost the BJP. The BJP is projected to lose six seats from its 2012 tally--the same as the increase in the Congress' tally--while the AAP is projected to win just 2 seats.

Both the BJP and the Congress are projected to lose voteshare, with the AAP gaining 12.8% of the votes despite winning just two seats. The exit poll was conducted by CVoter, polling 1,459 voters in 40 constituencies and has a +/-3% margin of error at the state level.


In Manipur, the BJP is projected to make spectacular gains, winning 28 seats and reaching within striking distance of forming government in the 60-seat house. The campaign led by former Congress minister Nongthombam Biren seems to have been a massive success, given that the BJP won its first seat ever in the state in the 2015 by-polls. The Congress, led by three-time CM Okram Ibobi Singh, is projected to win just 20 seats, or less than half its 2012 tally.


The Congress is projected to lose over 13 percentage points of its voteshare, but the difference between the Congress and the BJP remains within the margin of error of +/-3%. The exit poll was conducted by CVoter on 1330 voters in 60 constituencies.

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