Sanjay Kumar of Lokniti-CSDS writes that Bihar looks like a difficult, close contest, and we shouldnāt blame the opinion polls if they get it wrong. This seems to be a shift from his own survey data published in the Indian Express, which said that the National Democratic Alliance was a good 4% ahead of the Grand Alliance.
When this writer wrote in the Huffington Post that the details of Loknitiās own data suggests that itās advantage Grand Alliance, Sanjay Kumar and Suhash Palshikar responded saying that they stand by their assertion that the NDA was ahead.
What good is the survey methodology if it canāt give us clarity in a close contest? When itās not a close contest, itās clear as daylight which way the hawa is blowing. It is bizarre that Lokniti-CSDS is warning us in advance to not blame the surveys. Why not?
This change comes in the heels of the final opinion polls, some of which suggest the Grand Alliance is ahead. Ground assessment from Delhi-Patna journalists also seems to be suggesting that the Grand Alliance is ahead.
Based on recent travels in Bihar, here is this writerās admittedly subjective view of why the Grand Allianceās prospects look better than the NDAās in Bihar:
1) Modi magic isnāt working: Everyone agrees there is no āhawaā or āwaveā in favour of either the NDA or the GA. In other words, prime minister Narendra Modiās rallies have not been able to develop a wave in favour of the BJP-led NDA. In the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, there was a clear Modi wave. The lack of a BJP wave despite numerous Modi rallies is proof that the BJP isnāt doing as well in Bihar as it expected to. The BJP has increased the number of Modi rallies, making him address 40 odd meetings in the election month. This could still make a difference--weāll know on 8 November.
"The lack of a BJP wave despite numerous Modi rallies is proof that the BJP isnāt doing as well in Bihar as it expected to."
2) Central package didnāt work: Nitish Kumar has long demanded special status for Bihar, with a grant of Rs 50,000 crores to the state government. Narendra Modi had promised this in the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign, and Nitish Kumar tried to make an issue out of this for the assembly elections. Modi accepted Nitishās dare, and announced a package of thrice the amount--Rs 1.5 lakh crores. Nitish whined that this was not a grant to the state government, just a repackaging of existing central government projects. However, there is no resonance of any of this among voters. Facts and figures do not seem to capture the imagination of voters.
3) Growing rural disenchantment with Modi government: While Modi remains popular in urban areas, over 88% of Biharās population lives in rural areas, and most of them are not traditional Hindu upper caste supporters of the BJP. Poor rural voters complain of reduced money in central welfare schemes such as the Indira Awas Yojana, which builds rural homes, and the MGNREGA rural employment scheme. Despite low inflation figures, they complain that food prices continue to increase. While they havenāt written off Narendra Modi, one and a half years of his prime ministership has not won them enough to bring about a BJP wave for the state elections.
4) NDAās ticket distribution: The NDAās decision to give more than one-third tickets to upper caste candidates, even though their population is only 13%, helped the Nitish-Lalu combine make it an upper castes vs. OBCs election. This simple mistake is hurting the NDA more than RSS chief Mohan Bhagwatās call for a review of caste-based reservations.
5) Backward consolidation: The Lalu-Nitish combine has resulted in diverse sections among the OBCs coming together. The lower OBCs, called EBCs in Bihar, are assured that since Nitish Kumar will be chief minister, it wonāt be a Yadav rule. Yadavs are happy voting for Nitish Kumar since they see this as their last chance at gaining power. The Grand Alliance has given more tickets to Yadavs and EBCs than the NDA.
6) No local faces: It is not just that the BJP does not have a chief ministerial candidate, but also that the BJPās central leadership has been diminishing its own Bihar leadership. All the hoardings have images of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. The campaign has been run completely by Amit Shah and his team, sidelining the Bihar state leadership, whose tallest leader is Sushil Modi. The BJPās reluctance to promote Bihari leaders has become a barrier in voters being able to relate with the BJP as a party to rule Patna. This is not a Lok Sabha election. This has encouraged Nitish-Lalu to dub the BJP as ābahariā, meaning outsiders. "This has encouraged Nitish-Lalu to dub the BJP as ābahariā, meaning outsiders."
7) BJPās inability to attack Nitish Kumar: The BJP has been spending more energy attacking Lalu Yadav rather than Nitish Kumar, simply because there isnāt much to attack Nitish Kumar with. In his opening salvo against Nitish Kumar, prime minister Modi had made more personal than issue-based attacks on Nitish Kumar. The BJP knows that despite ten years of rule, there isnāt much anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar. The BJP was able to exploit anti-incumbency against UPA-2 in 2014, but the pro-incumbency for Nitish Kumar is hard to fight.
8) Attacking Lalu helps backward consolidation: The more the BJP attacks Lalu Yadav, the more it furthers backward consolidation. As Backward vs. Forward has become the main theme of this election, Lalu Yadav is able to sell these attacks to OBCs and EBCs as upper caste attempts at displacing the OBCs from power.
9) No Hindu-Muslim polarization: Lalu Yadavās self-goal in saying that Hindus also eat beef was a god-sent for the BJP, which appears to have made it the central issue this election. Yet the BJP has been unable to win more than a few backward voters over cow meat. Thatās partly because thereās no Muslim angle involved here to show āminority appeasementā. The debate is over whether or not Hindus eat beef. "Increasing small-scale communal violence over the past few months has also not been enough to make backward voters shift to the BJP.."
10) Nitish-Lalu alliance working well: To the surprise of many, the Lalu-Nitish-Congress alliance has been working smoothly. Lalu Yadav accepted Nitish Kumar as elder brother and chief ministerial candidate, Nitish Kumarās party quickly dropped its attempts to get a lionās share of the tickets, and the campaign strategies of the two have been carefully calibrated to compliment each other.
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