Nearly 8 in 10 Muslims are expected to vote for the Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress Party alliance in the Bihar State Assembly election, which kicks off on October 12, projects a HuffPost-C Voter pre-poll survey.
When the Bharatiya Janata Party and the JD(U) were allies during the 2010 state assembly elections, the BJP got 22 percent of the Muslim vote, but in this election it is the JD(U)+RJD+Congress alliance that will garner 77 percent of the Muslim vote.The BJP can only expect a dramatically-reduced 11%, the survey of nearly 10,000 voters suggests.
UPPER CASTE HINDUS
While the BJP and JD(U) received 44 percent of the upper caste Hindu votes during the state elections in 2010, the survey projects that the Narendra Modi-led party will get 58 precent of their votes in the upcoming elections and the anti-BJP alliance will receive 28 percent.
In the 2010 state elections, 29 percent of the Yadav community, which constitute 13 percent of the population in Bihar, voted for the BJP and its allies, but the survey projects that this share will drop to 25 percent as 59 percent of the Yadav community is "formidably standing behind" Lalu's RJD and its allies.
"Only trouble is that support could be limited to the 100 odd seats where RJD will put up its candidates," the survey said.
The survey also found that members of Nitish Kumar's case, the Kurmis, are less polarised than the Yadavs. "In short, Lalu has delivered his MY combination but Nitish is unable to confirm delivery of his Kurmi-Koeri combo on time," the survey said.
The survey projects that 38 precent of Kurmis, Nitish's caste group but not necessarily his safety net, will vote for the BJP and its allies, while 37 percent of votes will go to the anti-BJP alliance. And 44 percent of Koeris will vote for the BJP and its allies, while 36 percent will vote for the anti-BJP alliance.
While 43 percent of OBC's voted for the BJP-JD(U) alliance in the 2010 state elections, the survey projects only 34 percent of vote share for the NDA alliance in 2015, and 46 percent of the anti-BJP alliance.
Meanwhile, 46 percent of the Maha Backward Castes (MBC) are projected to go in favour of the BJP, and 29 percent for the anti-BJP alliance. "The data shows that while the OBC muscle of this alliance is still very much in place, but they have ceded ground in the much wrestled territory of MBCs," the survey said.
JITAN RAM MANJHI
The survey found that the BJP seems to have done right by allying with former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, who became the first Maha Dalit chief minister of Bihar, but was ousted by Kumar, earlier this year.
Manjhi and Ram Vilas Paswan, leader of the Lok Janshakti Party, have allied with the BJP for the Bihar state elections.
"While the Dalit votes are more or less equally split among the two alliances: the NDA is clearly making huge inroads into the "MahaDalit" segment," the survey said.
The poll projects that 40 percent of Dalits will vote for BJP and its allies, and 37 percent will vote for the anti-BJP alliance. But 42 percent of MahaDalits will vote for the BJP and 29 percent will vote for the anti-BJP alliance.
The survey also projects that 51 percent of the Musahar/Manjhi social group will vote for the BJP and its allies, while 36 percent will vote for the anti-BJP alliance. It says that 46 percent of the Paswan group will vote for BJP and its allies, and 35 percent of the anti-BJP alliance. It also projects that 44 percent of the Kushwaha group will vote for BJP and its allies, and 26 percent for the RJD.